Our 2026 Cyber Threat Landscape Report paints a concerning picture for Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) security. With cybercriminals launching 36,000 malicious scans per second between 2024 and 2025 and AI-driven threats becoming increasingly sophisticated, security teams must prepare for evolving challenges that target the very foundation of digital trust.
The latest threat landscape report reveals that PKI systems face unprecedented pressure from the advancement of quantum computing, machine-learning-powered attacks, and massive IoT deployments. For organizations relying on PKI to secure their digital infrastructure, finding the right Certificate Authority (CA) to help them understand emerging cyber threats is crucial to maintaining robust security year-round.
Contact our experts today to better understand your PKI needs
1. Quantum Computing: The Looming Cryptographic Shift
The Threat: Researchers predict that quantum computers will render current ECC and RSA encryption obsolete around 2026-2031, with significant long-term impacts on current PKI systems.
Quantum computers, with their incredible computing power, could breach the robust defenses PKI has built over the years, making our digital world vulnerable to previously unseen security threats. Not only can quantum computers break current public key algorithms, but the “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks mean threat actors are already collecting encrypted data for future decryption. creating massive technical debt and compliance risks
Business Impact: Organizations may face a complete overhaul of their cryptographic infrastructure. The migration to PQC may, by necessity, be a relatively rapid transition depending on the pace of PQC technology development.
How SSL Helps: SSL is actively working with customers to counsel and develop potential PKI solutions to prepare for post-quantum cryptography (PQC), including NIST-standardized algorithms such as FIPS 203 (ML-KEM) and FIPS 204 (ML-DSA).
Our experience in certificate issuance, lifecycle management solutions, and migration consulting services helps organizations begin their PQC transition journey gradually while maintaining operational continuity. Our team has experience working with teams on similar transitions and earlier PKI evolutions, such as the phase-outs of MD5 and SHA1 hash algorithms, or the move from RSA 1024 to RSA 2048.
2. AI-Driven Certificate Authority Attacks
The Threat: AI-driven phishing attacks that are more convincing and harder to detect, combined with automated malware that can adapt and evolve to bypass security measures, are targeting certificate authorities like SSL with unprecedented sophistication.
Threat actors leverage artificial intelligence to craft hyper-personalized attacks against CA infrastructure, potentially tricking AI-powered systems into disclosing sensitive PKI details or generating fraudulent certificates. These AI-powered exploits can compromise the entire trust chain, enabling man-in-the-middle attacks and domain spoofing at scale.
Business Impact: A compromised CA can issue fraudulent certificates for any domain, undermining trust across the entire internet. AI-powered attacks are often more difficult to detect and prevent than those using traditional techniques, making early detection and additional security crucial.
How SSL Helps: Our multi-layered security approach includes services such as pre-signing malware scan, Health Check Monitoring, and strict certificate issuance policies, especially at higher validation levels, such as Extended Validation (EV) Certificates. SSL.com’s robust verification processes and continuous monitoring practices help identify and revoke suspicious certificates before they can be exploited.
3. IoT Device Identity Crisis
The Threat: The proliferation of network-connected IoT devices creates more attack surfaces and vulnerabilities, necessitating robust PKI solutions to manage them. With billions of connected devices lacking proper certificate lifecycle management, the attack surface expands exponentially.
The challenge intensifies as IoT devices generate and transmit vast amounts of data, much of which is sensitive and must be shielded from unauthorized access and cyber threats. Poor certificate management in IoT deployments creates entry points for lateral movement across networks.
Business Impact: Compromised IoT devices can serve as stepping stones for broader network attacks. Organizations face compliance challenges with emerging regulations requiring proper device identity management.
How SSL Helps: SSL provides specialized IoT certificate solutions with automated provisioning, renewal, and revocation capabilities. Our Device Trust Management platform ensures each connected device maintains a valid digital identity throughout its lifecycle, supporting both traditional and emerging IoT protocols. SSL can also issue Matter-standard certificates for IoT device manufacturing.
4. Certificate Transparency Log Manipulation and Cryptographic Downgrade Attacks
The Threat: Certificate Transparency (CT) logs, designed to provide public oversight of certificate issuance, are vulnerable to sophisticated manipulation attacks, including split-world attacks and cryptographic downgrade vulnerabilities. Threat actors can exploit the trust model by showing different log views to targeted victims while simultaneously forcing systems to downgrade to weaker cryptographic algorithms.
These attacks exploit the fact that CT logs remain vulnerable to adversaries capable of controlling trusted entities, enabling them to issue fraudulent certificates that appear legitimate in compromised log views. Additionally, attackers exploit backward compatibility features to force downgrade attacks from secure algorithms, such as SHA-256, to deprecated ones, like SHA-1, making certificate validation susceptible to collision attacks.
Business Impact: Successful CT log manipulation can enable undetected man-in-the-middle attacks at scale, while cryptographic downgrades expose organizations to certificate forgery and signature collision attacks. The 2026 timeline is critical as legacy support for weak algorithms creates extended attack windows.
How SSL Helps: SSL implements robust CT monitoring, including cross-log validation and gossip protocol verification, to detect inconsistent log views. Our certificate issuance policies mandate strong cryptographic standards, automatically rejecting weak algorithms and providing cryptographic agility features to respond to emerging threats while maintaining audit trail integrity rapidly and securely.
5. Supply Chain Certificate Attacks
The Threat: Supply chain vulnerabilities represent another critical area of concern for organizations that use AI or products that incorporate AI, as each link in this supply chain introduces potential security vulnerabilities that threat actors can exploit.
Modern software supply chains rely heavily on code signing certificates and trusted publishers. Threat actors are increasingly targeting these certificates to distribute malware that appears legitimate, thereby bypassing traditional security controls through trusted channels.
Business Impact: Compromised supply chain certificates can affect thousands of downstream customers, resulting in significant liability exposure and increased regulatory scrutiny. Organizations may unknowingly deploy software that is compromised, yet bears valid digital signatures.
How SSL Helps: SSL provides comprehensive code signing solutions, including our Hardware Security Module (HSM) protection, timestamp services, and supply chain verification tools.
A Proactive Defense Strategy
The trends observed in the latest report indicate that successful PKI security throughout 2026 will require:
- Cryptographic Agility: The ability to rapidly upgrade algorithms and key lengths as threats evolve
- Automation at Scale: AI-driven certificate management to handle growing certificate volumes
- Zero Trust Architecture: Identity-centric security models that verify every certificate interaction
- Quantum Readiness: Hybrid certificate approaches that blend traditional and post-quantum algorithms
When security incidents occur, having detailed certificate and PKI telemetry enables rapid containment and recovery. Security teams can quickly identify compromised certificates, revoke affected credentials, and implement compensating controls while maintaining business continuity.
Your Path Forward with SSL
As the cyber threat landscape continues to evolve, SSL remains your trusted partner in navigating these complex challenges. Our comprehensive PKI solutions address each of these emerging threats while providing the flexibility to adapt to new risks as they arise.
Partner with SSL to build a PKI strategy that not only addresses today’s requirements but adapts seamlessly to future challenges.
Contact our experts today to better understand your PKI needs
